Last year, there were some really interesting ideas, the big winner was the short solar stocks thesis from Jim Chanos, those names have had an incredible decline over the last 12 months for exactly the reasons that Jimmy laid out.

Phil Falcone picked a winner in $XTXI.

The losers included Jeff Aronson's $CIT pick and Dinaker Singh's bullish bet on $S (oy vey).

For my full notes from last year, click here: Ira Sohn Conference 2011

Here's what you can expect this year:

Pretty sick, right?

For more info on the conference and the foundation, click below:

Ira Sohn - About the Conference

All eyes on the Spanish ten-year this morning, the fireworks have begun.  (MarketBeat)

A close look at Whitney Tilson's latest portfolio holdings yields quite a few surprises.  (ZeroHedge)

Morgan Stanley's desperate attempt to be bullish on China stocks.  (AlsoSprachAnalyst)

But Deutsche Bank is all like "No, dude, Chinese stocks are cheap for a reason - the growth model is broken."  (beyondbrics)

The iPhone 5 will have a 4 inch screen vs the current 3.5 inch one.  And I'm a total size queen so you know I'm upgrading.  (WSJ)

Facebook just bumped up its offering size.  Again.  This time by 25% more shares.  (SEC)

Here are the hedge funds that are profiting from JPM's Worstest Trade Ever.  (TermSheet)

Speaking of JPM, if this is true then I just give up. Fuck it, man, I'm going to a cabin in the woods to write children's books.  (DealBook)

"Not only is the 2012 smartphone owner downloading more apps, they are increasingly spending more time using them vs. using the mobile web — about 10 percent more than last year."  (NielsenWire)

Joe Fahmy: 7 Reasons I'm Sitting in Cash.  (JoeFahmy)

Wait til you hear about the massive series of fundraising parties Obama has planned for the Charlotte convention.  (Politico)

The 8 craziest prom stories of 2012.  (TheWeek)

Don't miss my daily linkfest for financial advisors this morning! (WSJFA)

Michael Gayed, a former protege of Faber's, explains that a 1987-style crash is not likely this year because of some pretty key differences in the market environment between then and now...

From MarketWatch:

The key reason the '87 Crash occurred was because of a massive disconnect between the performance of the bond market at the time, which was pushing yields of 10%, and a rising stock market, which was advancing precipitously for the bulk of the year. The significant outperformance of stocks relative to bonds was so stark that it caused the bond/stock ratio to completely collapse (bonds underperformed stocks sharply). The 1987 Crash in stocks completely undid that ratio breakdown and sent the ratio back to its longer-term trend line in a single day.

We simply don't have this set up now at all. The conditions are no where similar to 1987 internally within the markets. If anything, it is almost the exact opposite. Bond yields aren't pushing double digits like they did in 1987—they are at historic lows. Stocks have not gone vertical either. The market now is behaving more like it does in a traditional corrective environment within the context of what I believe is a reflationary and bullish year for stocks.

Michael's work concerns the analysis of relationships between markets, head over below for his whole article.

Is Another 'Summer Crash' Coming?  (MarketWatch)

Sorry!

For my penance, I'll present you with the bull case from two sources.

The first is Charles Schwab's chief strategist Liz Ann Sonders.  Here are some of the positives she sees as per her latest missive about whether or not we should Sell in May:

Muscle memory has many investors fretting a repeat of 2011 and 2010, when economic weakness in the spring led to brutal corrections each year, to the tune of -19% and -16%, respectively. But there's a long list of positive offsets this year relative to the past two years:

• Inflation is coming down, especially among commodity prices.
• Credit growth is quite strong, especially for consumers.
• Housing has improved markedly.
• The US manufacturing sector is humming.
• NFIB's small business survey made recent upside breakout.
• Job growth is much better.
• Consumer confidence is improving.
• Private-sector leverage ratios are much improved (debt servicing costs are extremely low).
• Recovery in state/local government spending.
• The US economy somewhat decoupling from rest of world; at least Europe.
• US bank capital/health is much better than Europe's.
• The European Central Bank's Long-Term Refinancing Operations have reduced likelihood of global financial contagion.
• Germany appears more willing to accept higher inflation, opening the door to easier monetary policy for the eurozone.
• Valuations are quite cheap, especially on forward earnings.
• Investor sentiment has improved sharply with the correction to-date (meaning pessimism has kicked back in).

Sonders also notes that Sell In May doesn't work well in election years and that even though the May-November period is much weaker for stocks overall, some of the year's strongest months occur within it.

Next, I'll point you toward my boys from Bespoke Investment Group and their look at how hated stocks have become among Wall Street strategists (hat tip John Melloy):

Bloomberg asks equity strategists at the major Wall Street firms each week what their recommended weighting is for stocks, bonds and cash. As shown below, the consensus recommended stock weighting has cratered this year and is now at 52%, which is just barely above the low weighting reached in March 2009.

So you see, it's not all bad, now is it?

Hope this bit of positivity serves as a counterbalance to my Summer of Suck post.

Sources:

Month of May: Sell and Go Away, or Hang in There? (Charles Schwab)

Bespoke Investment Group

It's basically foreigners and corporations buying their own stock in the plus column, while insiders and regular investors are on the minus side.

Some charts of the net buyers from his report:

Here are the foreign buyers of US stocks, they purchased a net $10 billion worth in Q1 according to data from the US Treasury:

And here are the corporate buybacks, note that hideous drop-off toward the fall of Lehman when everyone went into panic mode (via Ned Davis Research):

Kleintop notes that the insider selling-to-buying ratio (via Argus Research) is at 7 to 1 - a historic high.   But the good news is that corporate insiders were buying heavily at the top of the market in late 2007 and were selling at this same historic ratio at the bottom in 2009 - so extreme insider selling-to-buying  in the aggregate can actually be looked at as a great contra-indicator.

As far as US individual investors, we know that they are blowing out of equity mutual funds at a blistering pace, but did you know that in the last 12 months they've sold more than they did in 2008?

Here's the silver lining - the fuel for the next leg up will most assuredly come from US individual investors.  But they must first "become disillusioned with bonds", Kleintop says.  That could be awhile.

Follow Jeffrey on Twitter 

Facebook's initial public offering has been one of the hottest topics of conversation among seniors living in a retirement community in Boynton Beach, Fla., said 79-year-old resident Alvan Sweet.

Three of his retired friends -- two former doctors and a business owner -- have been badgering Sweet to help them secure shares. Facebook (FB) will officially price its shares Thursday night, and begin trading on the Nasdaq Friday morning under the ticker "FB."

Despite his hesitations, Sweet's friends are still chasing the Facebook IPO, hoping that their brokers will be able to secure them a piece of the pie, he said.

Sorry kids, Grandma didn't leave you any money - between coach buses dropping her off at Atlantic City each weekend and getting filled at the day's high for Facebook's IPO, there just isn't any left.

You still have that other grandma though, right?

Mr. Jones, I sense you’re being a bit more conservative right now because you don’t know me, am I correct? I’m a very conservative broker myself. I promise you, I didn’t get to this position by not taking into account my clients’ downside risk.

Hypothetically, if we picked up 1000 shares, and the stock drops 2 points, and you lose 2000 dollars, is that going to make you a poor man?

Of course not, or I wouldn’t be on the phone with you!

Now when I’m right and the stock trades to 50 like we think it does, and you make 20,000 dollars, is that going to make you a rich man? Exactly!

I’m not getting rich either! My commission, after I split it with the firm and the government—I can’t even buy myself lunch!

This is to serve as a benchmark, to show that I can guide you into the market at the right time; more importantly guide you out at the right time.

Mr. Jones, let’s do this, open the account for 1000 shares, a cash outlay of 30,000 dollars.

Give me the shot on a small trade in a great company. If you’re not completely satisfied with my level of professionalism and timing over the next 60-90 days, I urge you, call me up, fire me as you’re broker, I’ll sell the stock and send you back you’re proceeds, we’ll part as friends.

On the other hand, when I’m right, and I put a buy confirmation on your desk at 30 and a sell confirmation higher at 50, I want you to work bigger and better on my next idea.
           

Do just 1000 shares. If you like what I do for you on this, we’ll work bigger and better down the road, okay?

From:

Backstage Wall Street

Stuff I'm Reading this Morning...

The 17-nation Euro Zone reports GDP growth of 0.0%.  And the crowd goes wild!  (MarketBeat)

Michael Gayed on the prospects for another summer crash.  (MarketWatch)

Joel Greenblatt: If you can't pick stocks then buy an index, and if you're going to buy an index - for god's sake pick the right index.  (ValueWalk)

Re: the Greek Exit, a great bit of historical context for you to consider.  (Alhambra)

The original JP Morgan is doubtless rolling in his grave right now.  (BusinessWeek)

The Facebook IPO is just fine, thankyouverymuch, the range is being lifted.  (DealBook)

David Tepper buys a ton of Apple in Q1 and adds new stakes in Citigroup and Bank of America.  (BusinessInsider)

Tadas: Treat investing like a business.  (AbnormalReturns)

David Merkel: We're at a crossroads.  (AlephBlog)

Now what for the stock market?  (UpsideTrader)

Bobby: Social media is great for traders except when it isn't, how to reduce the noise level.  (StockSage)

Does frequent performance reporting make investors fixate on returns more or less?  (NerdsEyeView)

Fowke sounds like he's at the end of his rope.  That's right where they want him.  (MoneyIsTheWay)

How about an HBO show about 80's bond traders.  And what if Rob Riggle, Mark Wahlberg and Will Ferrell are involved?  (Deadline)

Don't miss my daily linkfest for financial advisors this morning! (WSJFA)