Games People Play: That 1929 Analogy

I’ve railed against the foolishness of chart overlays many times before, as have friends of mine like Dan Greenhaus. I understand the use of pattern recognition and the popularity of fractals, but when you see chart overlays presented like the “1929 vs Today” one that keeps popping up, you know for a fact that it’s being used to generate attention, page views, ratings etc. There’s nothing constructive about suggesting that price patterns indicate the coming of the next Great Depression. 

My friend Jon Krinsky, technical analyst at MKM Partners, blasted the below note out this morning…

***

There has been a lot of talk lately of the current market’s relationship to the run up to the 1929 crash.

Tom DeMark from Monday interview comparing current market to 1929…

The key issue to recognize here is the scale. When you overlay the charts, but don’t normalize them, they look very similar. When normalized, however (below), we can see they look quite different. From 1925-1929 the INDU was up over 230%. From the 2009 low to the 2013 high, the INDU was up 156%. So the rally in ’29 was much more significant prior to the decline.

 

The second chart is the same one, but uses a NON-Normalized scale. This is the one that appears to be going around lately. You can see how closely they resemble each other. But as we highlighted earlier, the difference is the percentage advance in 1929, where it clearly went parabolic. The current rally from 2009, while mature, is much less extreme.

 

 

***

Follow Jonathan Krinsky, CMT. on Twitter:

@jkrinskyPGA

 

This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.

The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of the Ritholtz Wealth Management employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded the views of Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by Ritholtz Wealth Management or performance returns of any Ritholtz Wealth Management Investments client.

References to any securities or digital assets, or performance data, are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. Charts and graphs provided within are for informational purposes solely and should not be relied upon when making any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The content speaks only as of the date indicated. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects, and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.

Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here: https://www.ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers

Please see disclosures here.

What's been said:

Discussions found on the web
  1. Bitcoin Evolution Review commented on Sep 23

    … [Trackback]

    […] Find More Info here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/01/29/games-people-play-that-1929-analogy/ […]

  2. bitcoin blazing trader commented on Sep 30

    … [Trackback]

    […] Information to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/01/29/games-people-play-that-1929-analogy/ […]

  3. dragon pharma shop commented on Oct 08

    … [Trackback]

    […] There you can find 86580 more Information to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/01/29/games-people-play-that-1929-analogy/ […]

  4. td login commented on Nov 15

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More Information here to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/01/29/games-people-play-that-1929-analogy/ […]

  5. diamond painting kits commented on Dec 30

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/01/29/games-people-play-that-1929-analogy/ […]

  6. DevOps consulting company commented on Feb 04

    … [Trackback]

    […] Read More on to that Topic: thereformedbroker.com/2014/01/29/games-people-play-that-1929-analogy/ […]