Tomorrow’s Narrative Today
- Joshua M Brown
- September 20th, 2013
Here’s what you’ll likely hear this weekend in the financial press and from the chief strategist types throughout the coming week:
Janet Yellen wrote the Fed’s statement this week and called the shots on the decision, Bernanke merely blessed it. He knows it’s her getting his gig next and the transition’s already begun. Brian Wesbury got the ball rolling on that one.
Yellen’s specialty in both Academia and at the San Fran Fed was and is currently the subject of unemployment, it’s causes and its effects on people and the national economy. Translation: the next Fed will be the most dovish in history and inflation concerns will be marginalized.
The bounce in yield plays and EM thanks to this week’s no-taper will be short-lived, stick to what’s working. Even though Yellen will be dovish, the market will remain on pins and needles and rates will eventually go up anyway.
Unconstrained bond funds and total return will be the only way to play fixed income going forward, bond index ETFs are toast. Okay sure, so long as you find the right unconstrained manager or the right total return manager. And whom might that be, pray tell?
US stocks are not as cheap as they were but are not yet ridiculously expensive. Boy, that’s helpful. Buffett himself believes this to be the case. He’s “having trouble finding good values.” Has he checked the junior gold miners lateley?
An October meeting (29th, 30th) taper or some mid-quarter surprise taper will be the next big stock buying opportunity. Don’t chase September’s historically abnormal rally. This one I actually agree with. Wednesday felt like a short-covering event in the yield stocks and REITs. Thursday was a hangover. Now what?
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The Reformed Broker is a blog about financial markets and the economy. Joshua Brown is a New York City-based investment advisor for high net worth individuals, charitable foundations, retirement plans and corporations... More.