July 2013

Capitulation Buying by Institutions

Savita Subramanian’s ‘Equity Client Flow Trends’ report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch has become one of my favorite regular reads. It gives you solid insight into what each of the four layers of investors are thinking and doing, despite what they tell the surveys. Subramanian’s quant strategy group looks at the net activity throughout the…

“What a f’in trainwreck”

The opening salvo from Eric Peters’s excellent wknd notes letter: *** What a f’in train wreck. And like all tragedies, soon after you bury the broken bodies, bloodhounds first unearth incompetence. Then corruption. Kickbacks. Capital misallocation. It shouldn’t take long to pick up a scent. Spain has Earth’s second longest high-speed network; behind China. They…

Chart o’ the Day: The Big Money Continues to Sell Apple

I hate the term “smart money” but I do like to discuss and monitor what big money is doing at all times. Because big money gets plenty of stuff wrong but it does move the market. Via Charts Etc, the big institutional money continues to flow out of Apple, despite its recent hare price recovery….

Remember when sequestration was going to crush the defense stocks?

Conventional wisdom circa year-end 2012, winter 2013: Among the deepest cuts to government spending under the sequestration terms would be to the defense budget. Many defense stocks have been underperforming the market as a result of investor anxiety about spending cuts, and this trend could pick up momentum going forward if no deal is reached….

Let me save you some time, re: ‘Our Second Half Outlook”

I’ve heard enough. I can help you. I’ve now attended or listened to more than a dozen “second half outlook” presentations from both the sell-side and several asset management shops. Nobody ever knows what’s going to happen, but its pretty awesome how everyone’s guesses coalesce into a giant miasma of shared expectations. The conventional wisdom…

How much time do you have?

If you had twenty five years left to live, how much time would you spend worrying about the daily ups and downs of the stock market? If you had twenty years left to live, how much time would you spend trying to time the stock markets and the economy and other things that are both…