Do or Die Time for Gold?
- Joshua M Brown
- March 20th, 2013
I am gold-agnostic, we've got a small slice of our core portfolio model allocations weighted toward it but other than that, really, it isn't all that interesting to me.
And I don't debate the precious metals cult because, first, I'm really busy and second, I've learned that the gold thing is really part of a bigger thing that involves religion and political leanings etc. Even if I cared to debate this things with total strangers - and I don't - there would be a zero percent chance that any arguments would even be listened to. If you tell a hyper-inflationist that he's been wrong for going on five years now, he'll tell you the data is being falsified, if you question his timing he'll say "any minute now". Pointless to even try.
But I thought the below was an interesting Chart of the Day:
With gold currently trading 15% below its September 6, 2011 peak, today's chart provides some long-term perspective on the bull market in gold that began back in 2001. As today's chart illustrates, the pace of the 12-year bull market has increased over time. Over the past 18 months, however, the price of one ounce of the yellow metal has declined more than at any point since 2008. In the end, this latest pullback has resulted in gold coming right back to support of its six-year accelerated uptrend channel.
My best guess is that if the Euro Contagion Fear Parade gets going again this spring, gold lifts off this supporting trendline and attracts the attention of the hot money crowd again. Which will be fun to watch, I suppose. I know a lot of people have a huge emotional and reputational need for this trade to work out so I'm rooting for them.
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The Reformed Broker is a blog about financial markets and the economy. Joshua Brown is a New York City-based investment advisor for high net worth individuals, charitable foundations, retirement plans and corporations... More.