Grading the Pundits’ 2012 Predictions
- Joshua M Brown
- December 12th, 2012
Punditry....tis a difficult business.
But many attempt it, the risk is low and the reward is high - some people can make an entire career with a prescient call, even while sweeping their terrible calls under rug every year thereafter.
There's a website that's dedicated to tracking the calls of the pundits and grading their efficacy. It's called PunditTracker and you can see their homepage here.
This is how the site describes itself:
PunditTracker’s mission is to bring accountability to the prediction industry.
The absence of media memory creates significant moral hazard in the world of punditry. Nuance and restraint do not play well on soundbite- and ratings-driven media, so shelf space is granted to those who espouse more extreme views. Ideally, these pundits would gain or lose credibility based on the outcomes of their calls. The 24-hour news cycle, however, means that the media is always latching on to the new flavor of the day. Rare is the postmortem to evaluate prior stories.
This week they've graded some of the most well-known pundits on their calls for 2012. I've posted the hyperlinks to each one, you decide whether or not their assessments are fair:
Barron's Roundtable: http://blog.pundittracker.com/
So, what do we think?
Related: I made three predictions of my own last December for what would be the top themes for 2012. I was lucky (yes, LUCKY) and went three for three. You can watch the video below...
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The Reformed Broker is a blog about financial markets and the economy. Joshua Brown is a New York City-based investment advisor for high net worth individuals, charitable foundations, retirement plans and corporations... More.