God Hates the Permabears, and He Punishes Them with NFP
- Joshua M Brown
- December 7th, 2012
November Non-Farm Payrolls is out, here's Lil Weezy:
The November jobs report is in, and it's a gigantic beat.
146K new jobs is well above expectations of 85K.
Private payrolls came in at 147K, which means that there was only a 1K drag.
Unemployment falls to 7.7% from 7.9%.
This is the lowest level since 2008.
God hates the permabears and He punishes them with monthly NFP upside surprises. Even if they're revised 60 days later, the damage is already done. This is also why He created the Labor Force Participation Rate scam, a classic - one for the ages. The way it works is, you simulate an unemployment number by deciding that X number of people are just not in the workforce anymore. So at this point, we're at 88 million people no longer being counted, up another 540k or so. The participation rate is 63.2% now. Which means the other 40% of eligible workers are probably independently wealthy, heirs to the Pop Tarts fortune or something. Congrats!
Also, here's Barry on why the month-to-month number doesn't matter.
Anyway, it's a good number and the market likes it. The S&P 500 looks like it wants to get to second base with the 1420 level again, under the shirt.
So let's go.
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The Reformed Broker is a blog about financial markets and the economy. Joshua Brown is a New York City-based investment advisor for high net worth individuals, charitable foundations, retirement plans and corporations... More.