The Brawl for it All
- Joshua M Brown
- November 12th, 2012
What's my "theme" for 2013? I don't know, but this one's probably as good as any you'll hear:
Housing versus Deficit Reduction - the question of recovery or recession will be decided by which of those aforementioned things has more impact on the economy this coming year.
To me, this push-and-pull represents the Brawl for it All, the battle for this economy's soul will be waged over the importance (or lack thereof) of the two opposing forces mentioned above.
If the answer is that housing is more meaningful to the economy, we get an improved recovery, jobs growth and maybe better stock prices.
But if the answer is economic drag from higher taxes and lower spending thanks to the eventual compromise over the fiscal cliff, we will likely see yet another year of the same or worse - sluggish revenues in Corporate America, spotty hiring, weak CapEx and a recessionary mindset in households across the country.
So which will have the bigger impact?
Will housing matter more or will the deficit reduction efforts put the final nail in our recovery's coffin?
Two things you should read on the topic:
Jamie Dimon on the strength in housing and why the ec0nomy is just waiting to "go boom." (CNBC)
Cullen Roche: Even with rising home prices, a recession can still happen. (PragCap)
Choose your own adventure on this one, folks.
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The Reformed Broker is a blog about financial markets and the economy. Joshua Brown is a New York City-based investment advisor for high net worth individuals, charitable foundations, retirement plans and corporations... More.