Downtown’s June NFP Preview
- Joshua M Brown
- July 5th, 2012
Today's better than expected data on the jobs front puts us all on the edge of our seats for the official BLS non farm payrolls report due tomorrow covering the month of June.
The official consensus is 93,000 jobs. For context, non-farm payrolls rose only 69,000 in May and April's report was revised lower to 77,000 jobs added.
For this month, look for hiring to grow in the following areas:
1. Summer Intern Wranglers
2. Angry Birdkeepers
3. Gay wedding planners
4. Gay divorce attorneys
5. America's Got Talent contestants
6. Journalistic phone hackers
7. Photography app creators
8. Libor compliance officers
9. Pinterest consultants
10. Food truck mechanics
All else being equal, the stakes are high for the headline number, especially given that all the data today was BTE, a summary from my man Julian at The Basis Point:
ADP Jobs Report
- ADP private Jobs (June 2012) +176,000.
- This is better than the two previous months.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 6/30/2012)
- New Claims 374,000. Down from previous (revised) 388,000.
- 4-Week moving Average 387,750.
Challenger Job Cuts
- Challenger Announced Job Cuts for June were 37,551
- Down from previous month’s 61,887.
Personally, I'm looking forward to all the jerkoff strategery that accompanies these numbers which finds everyone trying to get inside the head of the Fed (\What does this mean for QE3? Further off? Sooner?).
Anyway, I'll probably be golfing upon the release. Or maybe not, I don't know. You can see how important I think this single prone-to-revision data point is.
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The Reformed Broker is a blog about financial markets and the economy. Joshua Brown is a New York City-based investment advisor for high net worth individuals, charitable foundations, retirement plans and corporations... More.