There are forces at work here that many do not respect…
- Joshua M Brown
- June 4th, 2012
It is okay to admit when you don’t have an edge.
It is okay to say that you simply have no idea what’s happening next.
It is okay to sit out the possibility of an oversold bounce or a big snapback rally.
It is okay to shut down the trading software and shut your mouth.
There are forces at work here that many do not respect. There is “unprecedented” and then there is this, whatever the hell this turns out to be.
You have a trading plan for bank runs? For the spontaneous dissolution of the world’s largest economy? Congratulations on that, you’re the only one.
I understand that sentiment is so bad that literally any positive news will mean a sharp spike in the markets. But so what?
And what happens after? Why does anyone think that this spike will be sustainable in the absence of actual improvement on the China/Europe/US employment front? Why would anyone other than the most nimble traders be worried about missing it?
And also, it can always get worse.
Respect the fact that we have no idea how far this can go before it has “gone too far”. Respect the fact that once again, there is no leadership, no Man Behind the Curtain and that even the best and brightest and most connected and well-read are themselves grasping at straws here.
There is no solution, only a choice of what may be the least bad. There is no consensus, no one alive has ever seen anything like this.
I opt not to try to be cute here. I opt to look and listen and bide my time.
Sometimes there simply is no trade. I believe this is one of those times.
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The Reformed Broker is a blog about financial markets and the economy. Joshua Brown is a New York City-based investment advisor for high net worth individuals, charitable foundations, retirement plans and corporations... More.