Frontier Market to Watch: Turkey

Dynamic Hedge blogs about correlation, relative value and quantitative analysis at http://www.dynamichedge.com

Turkey is a strong emerging economy that is often overshadowed by the BRIC nations.  Recent revolutionary activity in the Mideast countries of Egypt and Tunisia should focus attention on Turkish economic strength and leadership in the region.

Turkey is a strong emerging economy that is often overshadowed by the BRIC nations.  Recent revolutionary activity in the Mideast countries of Egypt and Tunisia should focus attention on Turkish economic strength and leadership in the region.

Without getting too Foreign Affairs-y and deviating from my core competency, I want to touch on some important trends and developments:

  • “Per-capita income in Turkey tripled from $3,000 to $9,000 in less than a decade while foreign investment flows jumped from $1 billion a year to $20 billion a year and trade with the rest of the world burgeoned to $200 billion.”(Washington Times)
  • “Turkey has achieved what people said could never be achieved–a balance between Islam, democracy, secularism and modernity.” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, (Newsweek)
  • Turkey is gunning for EU membership in 2013.  The reforms required to apply for membership will only have a positive effect on the country.  If they are accepted, it will cement their leadership in the region and take the wind out of the radical islamists sails.  Who knows if it will actually happen.
  • “Turkey’s economy outpaced every member of the Group of 20 nations except China in 2010 with annual growth of 8.9 percent in the first three quarters.” (Bloomberg)
  • Turkish consumer products are in demand and sold throughout the Arab world.

Not every data point paints a flawless economic and political picture.  Turkey joined India and China in opposing the adoption of a new round of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program prompting concerns of a US-Turkey rift.  In March 2009, Turkey’s chief prosecutor petitioned the constitutional court to ban Erdogan and his AKP party from politics, on the basis/fears that they were steering Turkey toward sharia law.

Turkey has been on my radar for a while now.  Look at the beautiful chart above and tell me that they’re not in a bull market.

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